In the upcoming simultaneous elections in Odisha, the state will go to the polls in four phases, similar to the pattern observed in 2019. However, there is a slight deviation this time as Odisha will vote in the last four phases of the seven-phase election schedule, unlike the previous elections when it participated in the first four phases.
This delay in Odisha’s polling schedule compared to the general elections provides the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with additional campaigning time, potentially offering them an advantage, according to insiders. Despite this, the outcome remains uncertain, especially considering the state’s history of split voting in the previous elections. In 2019, while the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) secured a comfortable victory in the Assembly polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as a strong contender in the Lok Sabha polls, indicating a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.
Under the leadership of Naveen Patnaik, the BJD had maintained its dominance in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections since breaking ties with the BJP in 2009. However, the 2019 elections marked a departure from this trend, as the BJD’s Lok Sabha seat tally decreased to 12 from 20 in 2014, while the BJP witnessed a substantial increase from one seat in 2014 to eight seats. This shift in dynamics was particularly evident in western Odisha, where the BJP swept all five Lok Sabha seats and secured additional victories in northern and coastal regions.
Analyses of voting patterns revealed a surge in the BJP’s Lok Sabha vote share from 21.9% in 2014 to 38.9% in 2019, while the BJD’s vote share marginally declined from 44.8% to 43.3%. This surge came at the expense of the Congress, whose vote share plummeted from over 26% in 2014 to 14% in 2019. However, the BJP’s success in the Lok Sabha elections did not translate into a corresponding victory in the Assembly polls, where the BJD maintained its stronghold by winning 112 out of 147 constituencies.
Despite securing a record fifth consecutive victory in the Assembly elections, the BJD faced a significant challenge from the BJP, which emerged as the principal opposition party with an increased vote share of 32.8%, compared to 18.2% in 2014. The Congress, on the other hand, experienced a decline in its vote share, dropping to 16.3% from 26% in 2014.
Throughout Odisha, the Lok Sabha elections witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJD and the BJP, with slim victory margins in over 50% of the constituencies. While the Congress remained largely sidelined, it put up a formidable fight against the BJD only in Nabarangpur, a tribal-dominated constituency. In a notable victory, BJP’s Aparajita Sarangi defeated BJD’s Arup Patnaik in Nabarangpur, marking a significant shift from the 2014 results.
To counter the BJP’s surge, especially in western Odisha, Naveen Patnaik strategically contested from the region for the first time, aiming to consolidate support and prevent BJP’s further growth. While this move helped the BJD secure victories in all seven Assembly segments in Bargarh, BJP’s Suresh Pujari emerged victorious in the Lok Sabha polls.
Looking ahead to the upcoming elections, the political landscape in Odisha remains dynamic and unpredictable. The BJD, BJP, and Congress are gearing up for a fierce contest, with each party vying for supremacy in the state. As the election dates draw closer, all eyes will be on Odisha to witness the unfolding of yet another chapter in its political saga.